Uncertainty grips EPS amid seat-sharing chaos

The 2024 general election saw a triangular contest between the DMK, AIADMK and BJP in the state. The DMK alliance won in all 40 constituencies including Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. As a result, the BJP wanted to form an alliance with the AIADMK in the upcoming 2026 state assembly election.
Though the AIADMK was not interested in forming the alliance. But the subsequent Enforcement Directorate (ED) raids at the residences of AIADMK’s general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami’s relatives, and sudden summon to Delhi, made him change his mind. EPS met union minister and senior BJP leader Amit Shah, and an alliance decision was announced.
During his recent visit to Tamil Nadu, Amit Shah, while speaking in Chennai, said that an AIADMK-BJP alliance government will form in the state. The same has been echoed by BJP members.
However, EPS have been refusing it. Further, he clarified that they had only said the AIADMK-BJP alliance would win and form a government in Tamil Nadu, and not a coalition government. He dismissed the claim, saying people had not paid attention to the interview properly.
Meanwhile, Amit Shah held a meeting with his party functionaries in Madurai on June 7. In that meeting, he stated that 50 constituencies should be identified for BJP to contest. He also reiterated that a coalition government of AIADMK and BJP would be formed in Tamil Nadu. Even though EPS continues to assert that it won’t be a coalition government, the current situation in Tamil Nadu is such that EPS cannot decide whether it will be a coalition government or not.
In the last election, BJP contested only in 20 constituencies within the AIADMK alliance. This time, it has targeted 50 constituencies. PMK, on the other hand, contested in 23 constituencies — three more than BJP — since it was the next largest party in the AIADMK alliance in Tamil Nadu after AIADMK itself.
This time, as Ramadoss is expected to decide the alliance, he is likely to demand at least 50 seats. Similarly, in the last election, DMDK and TTV Dhinakaran contested separately by forming their own alliance. This time, they too have joined the BJP alliance. As a result, DMDK is expected to demand at least 25 constituencies. Additionally, TTV Dhinakaran and O Panneerselvam are each demanding 10 seats. Besides these, smaller parties such as Pudhiya Tamilagam, Tamilaga Munnetra Kazhagam, Parivendhar, AC Shanmugam, and others are also in the fray. They too are demanding seats. Going by the demand, over 130 seats would have to be allocated to alliance partners.
If that happens, AIADMK will be able to contest only in 75 to 100 constituencies. It in turn has become a worry of concern for EPS.
There’s no way to reduce the number of constituencies for BJP. So AIADMK will have to cut down on the seats of other parties. Alliance party leaders are already beginning to get confused about what their status will be.
Thus, EPS is standing helplessly in an unknown forest without knowing which way to go. No one knows how he is going to coordinate and build the alliance with BJP and the other parties.