What will happen to Vijay's TVK in the 2026 election?

Actor-turned-politician Vijay has announced that his party will contest the 2026 state assembly election. He also said that the competition will be between the ruling DMK and his party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK). The announcement was made during his party’s first general committee meeting. He is confident that he can beat AIADMK and grab its place in state politics.
But the AIADMK has formed an alliance with the BJP. While the alliance already includes Tamil Maanila Congress, AMMK, and the AIADMK faction led by former Chief Minister O. Panneerselvam, it is likely that PMK and DMDK will join them. The alliance has laid a strong foundation to face the upcoming assembly election.
Meanwhile, the DMK-led alliance has become strong in the state by implementing numerous welfare schemes for the government. Parties including CPI, Congress, CPM, MDMK, and VCK are already part of the alliance and are likely to continue it in the upcoming election. Without a doubt, the alliance will lead the fray.
The important question that revolves around us is: who will come after the DMK alliance as their competitors? This has become a topic of debate in recent times, and it needs to be answered. It is a well-known fact that alliance formation determines the victory and defeat of political parties in the state. According to analysis, Vijay’s TVK is in third place, since both the DMK and AIADMK have grabbed the top two places, thanks to their strong alliance formation.
It is also evident that Vijay’s TVK has a certain percentage of vote bank, and his fan followers will definitely support his party in the upcoming election. Similarly, Seeman, who has been contesting alone in the past elections, also has a vote bank. In the 2024 parliamentary election, his party got about 8.22% of votes across the state.
If Vijay contests in the upcoming election, will Seeman’s NTK retain its votes? It is most likely that Vijay will attract NTK’s votes.
Chennai, delta, and southern districts are strongholds of the ruling DMK. They strongly believe they will get votes from minority communities and the Adi Dravidar community because of AIADMK’s alliance with the BJP. Votes of people from the Arunthadiyar community in the Kongu region, AIADMK’s stronghold, may also fall for the DMK. Meanwhile, AIADMK is working towards snatching votes from minority communities towards them.
Both Vijay’s TVK and Seeman’s NTK are well capable of splitting votes in the upcoming election. But they are definitely not in the race towards forming the government. Vijay’s statement that his party is a tough competitor for the DMK may well suit his campaign, but the ground reality varies.